FinalProjectsolutionspapertohelpwithcriticalthinking.docx
PADM 7213
Final Project
Due Wednesday, December 7 by 11:50 PM
Note: this can be used as an artifact for NASPAA Competency 3: Analyze, synthesize, think creatively, solve problems, and make decisions.
This assignment is designed to demonstrate your ability to:
1) Analyze scholarly research aimed at informing public policy
2) Correctly interpret and synthesize results of complex statistical analysis
3) Think creatively about how changes to research design could impact findings
4) Discuss how research findings inform decision making and problem-solving
Please read the following article:
Houston, D. J., & Richardson Jr, L. E. (2004). Drinking-and-driving in America: A test of behavioral assumptions underlying public policy. Political research quarterly, 57(1), 53-64.
I. Analyze the Framework
1) What is the main question that the article is attempting to answer? USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1 paragraph please).
The main question the article is seeking to answer is whether policies based on deterrence theory are effective against drunk-driving. It seeks to test the behavioral assumptions underlying the use of deterrence theory towards drinking and driving and seeks to establish the extent to which these public policies are significant.
2) How do social definitions of behavior such as deviant and “sinful” affect the choice of policy to address those behaviors? USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1 paragraph).
Social definitions of behavior using words such as deviant and sinful are likely to result in the enactment of policies that are punitive. Law enforcement agencies are more likely to implement sanctions aimed at discouraging such behavior. However, the punitive policies are less likely to be successful and hence alternative approaches should be considered when making the decisions on the policies to use.
II. Interpretation of Statistical Analysis
The main variables of interest for the authors are two dummy variables:
· Occasional drink-driver: =1 if an occasional drink-driver, 0 otherwise (base case is never drink-driver)
· Frequent drink-driver: =1 if a frequent drink-driver, 0 otherwise (base case is never drink-driver)
Table 1: Please refer to Table 1 for the following questions:
Table 1: BAC Model
1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.
knows the legal BAC: =1 if knows the legal BAC levels; 0 otherwise
2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.
The raw logistic coefficient occasional drink driver is 0.434. The occasional drink drivers are more likely to know their legal BAC levels than non-drink drivers. The result is significant. p<0.01.
3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)
The odds ratio for occasional drink driver is 1.543. This means they are 1.543 times more likely to know their legal BAC levels than not knowing their legal BAC levels. This means that of occasion drink-drivers, 60.7% know their legal BAC levels while 39.3% do not know their legal BAC levels.
4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.
The raw logistic coefficient frequent drink driver is 0.476. The frequent drink drivers are more likely to know their legal BAC levels than non-drink drivers. The result is significan. p<0.05
5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)
The odds ratio for frequent drink driver is 1.608. This means they are 1.608 times more likely to know their legal BAC levels than not knowing their legal BAC levels. This means that of frequent drink-drivers, 61.7% know their legal BAC levels while 38.3% do not know their legal BAC levels.
6) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient on age. Also report statistical significance.
The raw logistic coefficient on age is -0.017. As age increases, the knowledge of BAC levels goes down. The results is significant. p<0.01
7) Interpretation of OR for age (percentages, please)
The OR for age is 0.983. This means when age is considered, that people are 0.983 times likely to know their legal BAC levels than not knowing their legal BAC levels. It means that when age is considered, 49.6% know their legal BAC levels while 50.4% do not know their legal BAC levels.
Table 1: Likely to be stopped Model
1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.
likely to be stopped:=1 if Likely to be stopped, 0 otherwise
2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.
